A Public Sphere for Poetry, Politics, and Nature
Biden will win by a narrow margin, says historian who correctly predicted every presidential race since 1984.
The Keys to the White House is a 1996 book, revised in 2008, about a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. The system, inspired by earthquake research, was first developed in 1981 by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.
2020 United States presidential election
On August 5 2020, Allan Lichtman predicted that Donald Trump will lose the 2020 United States presidential election to challenger Joe Biden based on seven of the thirteen keys of his prediction model turning false against the incumbency. In other words, keys 1, 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, 11 are in Biden’s favor while keys 2, 3, 4, 7, 10, 13 are in Trump’s favor.
This post was compiled by Michael Simms.